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At first, the former US president appeared to embrace a strong position on the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering threats of "significant consequences" in August in case Putin persisted blocking peace negotiations, the former president ultimately imposed substantial sanctions on the Russian biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This move substantially impacted the Russian leader's ability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, with his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, that was drafted by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European participation, the former president has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's initiative would effectively benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite ringing statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the initiative in reality weaken that same autonomy. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate past, Trump seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic territorial dispute, as if giving Putin a section of Ukrainian land will satisfy the president. But, Russia's military campaign is not simply about controlling a charred region of deindustrialized land in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to eliminate it so it stops serves as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

While freezing in position the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would compel Ukraine to abandon the entire Donetsk region. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unable to capture in over a lengthy period of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukraine's military defenses severely weakened.

The area is the place of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that constitute a key barrier to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, giving Putin a clear way to the capital should he later choose to resume the conflict.

Defense Limitations

Additionally, in a move that would make additional hostilities simpler for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its military from their current approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Notably, the plan sets no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's efforts to portray Ukraine's legitimate administration as extremists, the plan asserts: "All radical belief system and practices must be opposed and prohibited." Seemingly to highlight this point, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump sets no obligation that Putin endanger his regime by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation promise not to "attack other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent treaties in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's borders in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a handback of seized territory in the region to Kyiv – how should we trust Russia now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on western security guarantees. While the proposal warns of a "strong coordinated armed reaction" if the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars include vague to troubling. The plan would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the reassurance force, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Russia from restoring his reduced forces, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Concern

A separate parallel deal according to sources would provide the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "major, intentional, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an attack endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a military response. But different from a powerful national defense – Ukraine's primary defense against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to act militarily to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not